Betting Strategies and Horses to Follow

 

SECTIONAL TIMES REPORT FOR 22/9/2007 

 

Last Saturday nine races were run at Caulfield on a track rated as a good (3). They ran only 1.21 seconds off the track record in Race 1, so therefore they could run time all day - if the tempo was right and the quality of horse was good enough. Six of the nine races were run within 2 seconds of the track record – the three that weren’t were the races won by Gabbidon (2.70 seconds off track record), Purrealist (3.00 seconds) and Miss Judgement (2.15 seconds).

 

Four races were run over 1400 metres, so again it is helpful to do a table of comparison of the first 800 and last 600, to plot the speed of those races. So let’s do that in order of fastest overall time to slowest.

 

 

You can see from this table that neither the 3YO filly Gabbidon, or the 3YO colt Purrealist can get within panels of fencing of Bon Hoffa’s or Maloose’s time. Gabbidon’s field can’t ever sprint home any quicker than Bon Hoffa’s, after going out 8.22 lengths (1.37 seconds) slower in their first 800. Purrealist’s race goes out a hopeless 2.34 seconds, or 14.04 lengths slower than Bon Hoffa, yet Marching sits third on the fence and still can’t win.

 

If we switch to the 1800-metre race won by Miss Finland and the 2000-metre race won by Douro Valley, we can make some interesting comparisons in their last 600-metre personal sectionals. In order from the fastest last 600 personal sectional to the slowest last 600 personal sectional of the sampled horses below they read:-

 

 

This graph again shows why Miss Finland (hit hard 12 times with the whip, so she was fully tested) is no champion, or if she is, then so is Douro Valley. Both were 3 wide at the 600 without cover when their personal 600 starts, but Douro Valley was three wide for the entire race, over further, and in Douro Valley’s race, they ran closer to the track record by nearly six lengths (0.97 of a second) than they did in Miss Finland’s race.

Douro Valley has run only 0.27 of a second (1.59 of a length) off Miss Finland for the equivalent last 600.

Red Lord – a Class 2 horse – that as at today in the last 12 months has won just one race, a Class 3 at 20-1 in a photo at Warwick Farm (7/3/07) – can run home only 0.19 of a second (or 1.12 lengths) off Miss Finland.

Now line up what I just stated about Douro Valley’s and Red Lord’s personal last 600 metre splits, up against Marasco - who had enjoyed a much more economical run than Miss Finland - and you would wonder how Marasco could go so badly.

 

RACE 1 SUMMARY

Big risk horse Gamble Me unfortunately got home, but he was only the fourth metropolitan Saturday big risk horse all year to prove me wrong. He had the good run behind the two tearaway leaders, so had to win the way the race was run and he was within his distance range here when racing at 1100 metres.

The overall time was okay which made the run of Downhill Racer good as he came from last.

Gamble Me and Allervite are problems beyond 1200, but both may run 1200 given the right run in transit.

 

RACE 2 SUMMARY

When you line up the time here with that of Bon Hoffa’s and the first 800 and last 600 sectionals, it shows you the run of Surfside Christmas is a bottler, so I put her straight on the list to follow. You’d be entitled to think that she’d have to win a race over the Carnival off this effort.

The first two placegetters, Maloose and Game Serena, both ran well due to the fast time overall, whilst there were two good runs back in the ruck that no one will have seen – Lacey Underall and Iris In The Glen. Both were stayers resuming and they ran 15^th and 13^th respectively, but don’t be fooled by that. On what I saw here, Iris In The Glen had no luck and ran out of puff in the last 200 from her hard run and Lacey Underall only started to wind up in the last 200. Either, or both, could get away with running a place, or winning at cricket score odds over the Spring Carnival, including country cup type races. It is worth noting Lacey Underall needs either a good or fast track, as she has run only one placing in 12 goes on dead, slow or heavy surfaces.

Red For Lou had no luck in the run to the line.

 

RACE 3 SUMMARY

The time here was okay for the class.

Sonic Quest was strong on the line after racing wide.

Stanzout ran on, but was ridiculously short in the market, whilst the usual suspects ran on again, namely Amyjaye Power and Amerryking.

The best run in the race was by Keltah, but she was 40-1 with no interest in Darwin, so it could have been a fluke run. The rest had their chance.

 

RACE 4 SUMMARY

The time here is as slow as a wet week, as most couldn’t run out the 1400.

Chinchilla Rose was pathetic ridden forward. That’s not the way to ride her - they have no idea. Gabbidon looked good and probably would have won by further if they had run along in front (the slow first 800 was noted in the earlier table).

Tan Tat De Lago looked hopeless and apart from Gabbidon, I thought Perfect Persuasion was the best of the rest.

 

RACE 5 SUMMARY

This race is a waste of time, in the main, due to the ridiculously slow speed.

Marching was disgraceful, as he should have been able to win given the box seat run and the slow first 800, and he did follow the fence the whole way and got an inside run on the home turn.

Purrealist came home along the fence, so that also helped this gallopers cause.

A gelding named Littorio ran 10^th at $81, but he just started to wind up when the race was over. He’s stoutly bred on his dam’s side, being out of a Centaine mare, and I wouldn’t put a line through him yet, until I saw him in a race where he can settle back off a hot speed and be afforded the opportunity to run on. He may well make a very nice stayer in life, as this was only his third race start, so he’ll have more possible upside than most. The fact that he could run the second quickest last 600, with no luck in the last 100, vindicates my staying theory.

 

RACE 6 SUMMARY

With it being a Group 1 race prices for all runners are put here. As a matter of interest that couldn’t happen in Purrealist’s race this day, as short priced favourite Weekend Hussler was in the market for that race when betting commenced and he only came out on Saturday morning.

This Turnbull Stakes was a funny sort of race.

Miss Finland and Marasco both bit the dust in the so-called “two horse race”.

Eskimo Queen had no luck, but she did get hit hard 6 times, so how much ground did the home turn interference cost her? I doubt she would have won, even with a trouble free run, but I think she may have run second, so that is a good effort for a lightly raced mare. I am back to having an open mind about where she sits in the general score of things. She may be better than I first gave her credit for, as you are entitled to say this was a career best effort from her.

Maybe Better was pathetic. He never spent a penny the entire race and yet had no sprint in the straight and couldn’t run sectionally close to say Miss Finland who had been 3 wide from the 1000, so I’ve taken Maybe Better off the list. His only possible excuse is that he needs a wet track, but he never looked likely to run a place here.

I saw Maslins Beach have no luck in the run and she was wide for most of the race, so I thought her effort was okay. She might run a place in a Group 1 Myer Classic (1600 for mares at Flemington) behind Divine Madonna later in the Carnival, if they’ll now drop her back in distance slightly.

King Of Ashford I noted travelled better in the run this start than he did last start, so don’t rule him out of anything yet just because of his major flop first up. His condition gave out in the home straight in this race, which it was entitled to, as it was only his second race start in 7 months.

The Irish born stallion Annenkov ran a better race, but was 300-1 in Darwin with no interest, so you’d wonder if he can possibly have much ability when bookmakers treat him with such disdain?

 

RACE 7 SUMMARY

Bon Hoffa won well, but Divine Madonna is an outstanding race mare and her great run and dominant sectional see her put straight on the list to follow. Check out Divine Madonna’s Darwin fluctuations, you’d reckon she had a leg missing.

You can see the sectionals are very bunched from Blahnik inclusive onwards, so most of those would need to be in a luck race at this level to be competitive.

Murtajill’s run was a career best effort, but there must be two of him, as the ambulance has been beating him in lately.

Anamato’s first up run following America was good, but you have to get up early to catch her.